生猪生产波动的影响因素分析及对策建议

以蛛网理论为基础，运用对数C-D生产函数，选取1994—2011年统计年鉴数据，对中国畜牧业产值、农民人均纯收入、人均生猪出售量、玉米产量，进行了生猪生产波动影响的实证分析，并对生猪疫病和政府支持政策对生猪生产波动的影响进行理论性分析。根据分析结果，得出生猪生产规模和生猪价格对生猪生产的影响系数为0.37和0.235，农民人均纯收入与玉米产量对生猪生产不具有长期稳定影响关系，其次，生猪疫病和政府支持政策的稳定性也是国内生猪生产波动的影响因素，最后提出稳定国内生猪生产波动的建议与对策。

The Influencing Factor Analyses and the Countermeasures of the Fluctuation of the Pig Production

This paper was based on the cobweb theory, using the logarithmic C-D production function and data from the statistical yearbook between 1994 to 2011, to take empirical analysis on animal husbandry output value, per capita net income of farmers, and the per capita pig sell quantity, maize yield which were the influencing factors of the fluctuation of pig production. And took theoretical analysis on the influence of the pig disease and government supportive policy. According to the results of analysis, drawing the influence coefficient of the pig production scale and the price of pig was 0.37 and 0.235, per capita net income of famers and maize yield did not have long-term stable relationship with pig production, then pig disease and government stable supportive policy were also the influencing factors of the fluctuation of pig production, finally put forward suggestions and countermeasures to stabilize the fluctuation of pig production.