主要农业灾害对辽宁农业生产的影响

为了研究辽宁农业灾害的分布特征及其对农业生产的影响，更好地为农业服务，利用辽宁省1980—2010年粮食总产及1996—2005年农业灾害资料，分析了辽宁各地主要农业灾害（干旱灾害、洪涝灾害、风雹灾害、霜冻灾害和病虫害）的变化特征及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明：随着农业灾害的发生，粮食总产与受灾程度呈周期性波动，受灾程度与对应年份的产量呈显著负相关(R=-0.52, P<0.01)。从时间序列来看，1989、1994、1997、2000、2001年辽宁受灾程度较高，受灾面积均超过2.5×106 hm2，成灾面积超过1.3×106 hm2。2004—2008年灾情有所缓和。从农业灾害的空间分布来看，农业灾害影响严重的地区主要集中在辽西地区。按农业灾害强度大小依次为：辽西地区，辽北地区、辽南地区、辽中地区及辽东地区。各类灾害中以干旱灾害、洪涝灾害和风雹灾害影响较大，是影响农业生产的主要因素，三者所占的比重为78%~98%。

Effect of Main Agricultural Disasters on Agricultural Production in Liaoning Province

In order to study the distribution features of agricultural disasters in Liaoning and its effect on agricultural production, better serviced for agriculture. Based on the census data of crop yield from 1980 to 2010 and agricultural disaster from 1996 to 2005, the author probed the relationship between grain production and the main agricultural disaster (drought, floods, wind hail, frost and plant diseases and insect pests), as well as the temporal and spatial characteristics of the agricultural disasters in Liaoning Province. The results showed that grain yield took on a cyclical fluctuation accompanied by the occurrence of agricultural disasters in agriculture and there was a significant negative correlation (R=-0.52, P<0.01) between them. Agricultural production suffered severely loss in 1989, 1994, 1997, 2000 and 2001, in which years the affected areas by agricultural disasters was over 2.5×106 hm2 and the inundated area was 1.3×106 hm2. The disaster situation was on the alleviation from 2004 to 2008. The regions suffered more severely from the agricultural disaster were mainly distributed in west Liaoning. Among the regions of Liaoning Province, the agricultural disasters led to the disasters strength in west Liaoning, then north Liaoning, south Liaoning, central Liaoning and east Liaoning. Drought, flood and wind hail, consisting of 78% to 98% of the total loss nationwide, were the three major agricultural disasters affecting the agricultural production.