潍坊市农业气候资源变化特征分析

为了在气候变暖的大背景下最大限度地利用好自然资源，合理安排农业生产，利用1961—2010年潍坊市9个县市区气象资料，应用线性气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法以及Morlet小波分析方法，对潍坊市农业气候资源变化特征进行诊断分析。结果表明：潍坊市除了≥20℃积温以外，其他各界限温度积温都表现出极显著增多趋势，增幅在55.6~77.3℃?d/10 a之间；各界限温度初终日间降水量呈减少趋势，但减少趋势并不显著；≥0℃、≥10℃间隔日数及无霜期表现出显著增多趋势，增幅分别为4.8 d/10 a、2.6 d/10 a和2.3 d/10 a。≥0℃、≥10℃积温在1994年发生突变，≥5℃、≥15℃、≥20℃积温在1998发生突变；各界限温度初终日间降水序列不存在显著的突变点；≥0℃、≥10℃初终日间隔日数及无霜期突变点发生在1991年、1996年、2004年。除界限温度初终日间降水及≥20℃积温外，其他积温普遍存在6年时间尺度的周期变化，无霜期存在6~8年的时间尺度周期变化。

Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Agro-climatic Resources in Weifang City

In order to maximize use of natural resources and reasonably arrange agricultural production in the background of climate warming, based on the meteorological data in 9 counties in Weifang during 1961-2010, and using linear climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Morlet wavelet analysis methods, the agro-climate resources in Weifang were investigated. The results showed that: except for ≥20℃ accumulated temperature (AT), other boundary temperature ATs increased significantly, with a growth rate of 55.6-77.3℃?d/10 a. The precipitation between the initial and final date of every boundary temperature tended to decrease, but the decreasing trend was not significant. The interval days between the initial and final date of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ and the frost-free period increased significantly by 4.8 d/10 a,2.6 d/10 a and 2.3 d/10 a. The mutation happened to ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ ATs around 1994, ≥5℃, ≥15℃ and ≥20℃ ATs arounded 1998. The precipitation between the initial and final date of every boundary temperature had no significant abrupt change point. The abrupt change happened to the interval days between the initial and final date of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ and the frost-free period arounded 1991, 1996 and 2004. Except for ≥20℃ AT and precipitation between the initial and final date of every boundary temperature, there prevalently existed a period change of 6-year time scale for other boundary temperature ATs, and 6-8 years time scale for the frost-free period.