气候变化对北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力影响研究

为了最大限度地提高北碚区蔬菜产量，促使蔬菜充足供应和农民增收，利用北碚区1951—2010年逐日平均气温、降水量等气象资料，结合周广胜气候生产力模型，统计了北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力。在此基础上，采用线性回归、MK突变、小波理论等方法重点分析其变化分布特征。结果显示：北碚区蔬菜气候生产力呈上升趋势，并具有2~4年、12~13年的周期振荡，年平均蔬菜生产力为11412.11 kg/(hm2?a)；蔬菜气候生产力存在明显的突变，影响北碚气候生产潜力变化的主要因素是降水量。建立了北碚蔬菜气候生产潜力预测模型，模拟的蔬菜气候生产力与实际蔬菜产量的变化趋势基本相同，当北碚气候处于暖干型气候（温度增加3℃，降水量减少10%）和暖湿型气候时，对蔬菜的生长最为有利。关键词 气候变化 北碚区 蔬菜气候生产潜力

The Effect of Climate Change on Climatic Production Potential of Vegetable in Beibei District

In order to maximize the current vegetable production, prompting vegetables sufficient supply and increasing farmers’ income, the author used daily average air temperature, precipitation, meteorological data from 1951 to 2010 in Beibei District, combined with Zhou Guangsheng climate productivity model, calculated the climate production potential of vegetable in Beibei District, on this basis, using linear regression, the mutation of MK, wavelet theory, and analyzed the distribution characteristics of it. The results showed: vegetable climate productivity of Beibei was rising, with periodic oscillation of 2-4 years, 12-13 years, the average annual vegetable productivity was 11412.11 kg/(hm2?a); vegetables climate productivity had obvious mutation, mainly dued to the impact of climate change in Beibei production potential of the pigment precipitation. To establish forecast model of vegetable climatic potential productivity in Beibei, the change trend of vegetable climatic productivity and the actual yield of vegetable simulation were basically the same, when the Beibei climate was warm and dry climate (temperature increased from 3℃, 10% less precipitation) and warm climate, the vegetables grew the most favorable.