| 山东省粮食产量的动力学预测及建议 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈成忠,林振山,孙娴. 山东省粮食产量的动力学预测及建议[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(28): 8773-8775 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈成忠 林振山 孙娴 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京,210097;临沂师范学院地理与旅游学院,山东临沂,276005;南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京,210097 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金项目(40371044)，国家“211”二期工程重大项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在各种假设条件下,分析山东省1985~2004年粮食总产、单产及播种面积,根据动力学原理建立了若干粮食产量动力方程进行数值模拟和预测,提出若干解决方案,并分别给出不同方案下粮食产量的预测值。最后,提出相关建议,以期应对国家和地区未来的粮食安全问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食产量 动力模式 预测 山东省 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）28-08773-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-26 |
Dynamic Prediction and Suggestions of Grain Output of Shandong Province |
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| CHEN Cheng-zhong et al. Dynamic Prediction and Suggestions of Grain Output of Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(28): 8773-8775 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Cheng-zhong et al |
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| Affiliation: | Geographical Science College;Nanjing Normal University;Nanjing;Jiangsu 210097 |
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| Abstract: | Under various hypothetic conditions,the total output and yield of per unit of grain,and the area of cultivated land in Shandong Province from 1985 to 2004 were analyzed.And then,the dynamic prediction models of grain output were presented based on a variety of hypotheses and the dynamic models.Moreover,a few solutions and different forecast values were analyzed.Finally,some suggestions were put forward to deal with the future food problems of the region and country. |
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| Keywords: | Grain output Dynamic model Prediction Shandong Province |
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