用突变模型研究森林蓄积的稳定性

模型构造的方法是以Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ方程描述生长量，假设采伐量为常量且等于生长量时，推导出折迭突变模型．此模型有助于管理层制定管理决策，防止森林消亡．该文又通过曲线采伐模型及Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ生长模型推导出尖角突变模型，这个模型给出了采伐将导致突变发生的敏感区域，而且通过模型的滞后性使人们清楚地意识到森林一旦遭受破坏，再想恢复需投入更大的力量．

Study on Stability of Forest Growing Stock by Catastrophe Theory Model

Forest growth can be modeled with the Logistic function. When the harvest is considered as constant, and the growth equals the cut the fold catastrophe is worked out.The models can be used to determine management strategies that prevent forest from withering away. Combining the curve harvest models with the Logistic growth models, the cusp catastrophe model is obtained in the paper, and the sensitive areas under various site conditions and maximum harvest are given in the model. The hysteresis shows that the recovery of forest is very difficult after it is damaged