2011—2050年RCP4.5新情景下东北春玉米种植布局及生产评估

【目的】研究东北地区春玉米适种区域及其生育期、产量对气候变化的响应。【方法】基于气候模式RegCM4输出的未来RCP4.5新气候情景逐日资料，采用经验频率法预测80%保证率下2011—2050年中国东北地区早、中、晚熟型春玉米种植区域时空变化，同时结合作物模型DSSAT4.5对黑龙江省晚熟品种的生育期、产量变化特征及该省因气候变化而新增的晚熟品种可能种植区内晚熟玉米的适种性进行模拟评估。【结果】RCP4.5情景下，2011—2050年东北三省≥10℃的积温呈增加趋势，早、中、晚熟型玉米品种种植界限均有不同程度的北扩或东移，可能种植范围扩大。黑龙江省2011—2050年间晚熟玉米新增可能种植区域内适宜种植晚熟品种；气候变化对原有种植区内晚熟品种生殖生长期的影响程度大于对营养生长期的影响，全生育期天数平均缩短2—11 d；产量变化存在明显空间差异，不考虑CO2肥效作用和考虑CO2肥效作用两种方案下的产量变化范围均介于±20%以内，但考虑CO2肥效作用时的产量较高。【结论】因气候条件变化而新增的春玉米种植区域的适种性需要综合考虑多方面因素来评估。未来40a玉米全生育期天数变化主要源于生殖生长期缩短，大气中CO2浓度增加带来的肥效作用可抵消一部分因温度升高产生的对玉米产量形成的不利影响。

Planting Distribution of Spring Maize and Its Productivity Under RCP4.5 Scenario in Northeast China in 2011—2050

【Objective】The study was aiming at the response of planting suitable areas for spring maize，its growth period and production to climate change. 【Method】 Based on the daily climate data of RCP4.5 scenario calculated by the regional climate model RegCM4 in Northeast China in 2011-2050, the empirical frequency method was used to predict the changes of planting area under 80% guaranteed rate for early maturity, mid-maturity and late maturity spring maize varieties, combined with crop model DSSAT4.5 to evaluate the changes of growth period and yield, and the planting suitability at the area expanded by climate change for late maturity spring maize in Heilongjiang province in the future. 【Result】 The ≥10℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend in Northeast China. The planting northern boundary of different maize varieties will be moved northward or eastward at different degrees and the probable cultivation region will be larger than before. It is suitable for late maturity variety to grow at the expanded region in Heilongjiang province in 2011-2050. The impact of climate change on reproduction growth period is going to be bigger than the vegetation growth period for late maturity variety in this following 40 years in the original planting area, which was existed in 1981-2010 in Heilongjiang province, and the whole growth period will be shortened by 2-11 days. Meanwhile, the changes of yield in the future compared with present level will have a significant spatial difference. Yield change range will be both in ±20% with considering the CO2 fertilizer effect or not, but the yield of the considered one is higher. 【Conclusion】Planting suitability of the expanded region due to climate change needs to be evaluated with many factors contained for maize. The whole growth stage change of maize is mainly caused by the shortened reproduction growth of maize. The effects of CO2 concentration enrichment in air will counterbalance a part of disadvantage of increased temperature for maize yield.