基于减排潜力与减排成本的水稻种植模式综合评价——以湖北省为例

种植模式是影响农业碳排放的重要因素之一,分析通过改变种植模式实现碳减排的可行性,筛选并推荐适宜的低碳种植模式,对实现农业低碳高效发展具有重要的意义。本文以湖北省水稻种植为例,在识别区域主要种植模式的基础上,核算模式间的碳排放强度和生产成本,分析通过生产模式转换实现碳减排的可行性和潜力,并最终筛选出适宜的低碳排、高效益型种植模式。结果表明,湖北省3个主要水稻种植区20种种植模式间碳排放强度及生产成本差异明显,通过种植模式的调整可实现碳减排。鄂中水稻种植区适宜推广的种植模式为:中稻-油菜、间歇灌溉、适量施肥、秸秆不还田和机械耕作;江汉平原水稻种植区适宜推广的种植模式为:中稻-油菜、淹水-烤田-淹水-间歇灌溉、适量施肥、秸秆不还田和机械耕作;鄂东北水稻种植区适宜推广的低碳种植模式为:中稻-小麦、间歇灌溉、适量施肥、秸秆不还田和机械耕作。种植模式从基准模式向各个区域推荐模式转换过程,可以实现碳排放强度和生产成本的同时降低。研究结果可以为种植模式综合评估和低碳农业发展路径选择提供参考。

Comprehensive Assessment of Rice Planting Patterns Based on Emission Reduction Potential and Cost:A Case Study of Hubei Province,China

The planting pattern is one of the important factors that affect the agricultural carbon emission. Analyzing the feasibility of carbon reduction through changing the planting pattern, screening and recommending the suitable low-carbon planting pattern are of great significance to realize the low-carbon and efficient development of agriculture. Based on the identification of the main paddy planting patterns in Hubei Province, the carbon emission intensity and production costs among patterns were calculated, the feasibility and potential of carbon reduction through transformation of production modes were analyzed, and the suitable low-carbon and high-efficiency planting patterns were selected. The results showed that there were significant differences of carbon emission intensity and production costs among 20 planting patterns in three major paddy growing areas in Hubei Province. It indicated carbon reduction could be achieved through adjusting the planting pattern. The carbon emission intensity and production costs could be reduced simultaneously, when the base planting pattern was converted to the recommended mode of each area. The reasonable irrigation practices and rotation systems and the adjustment of agricultural inputs were the key factors in achieving effective reductions in carbon emissions while reducing economic costs. The results of this study can provide a reference for the comprehensive evaluation of planting patterns and the selection of low-carbon agriculture development path.