辽宁省生长季气候变化及其对春玉米产量的影响

为了明确气候变化对辽宁省春玉米产量的影响,基于1968—2017年气象站点数据,结合标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),运用M-K趋势分析、相关分析及回归分析等数理统计方法研究了辽宁省春玉米生长季各气候要素、干湿变化特征及其与春玉米产量的关系。结果表明:降水量除丹东呈增加趋势外,其它地区呈现减少趋势; 大部分地区温度呈现升高趋势,风速呈显著减弱趋势,相对湿度变化趋势不显著; 日照时数除辽阳、本溪呈不显著增加外,其他地区呈减少趋势。降水、最高温和平均温是影响辽宁省春玉米产量的重要因子,尤其是朝阳、葫芦岛、锦州、阜新和大连地区,春玉米对这些要素更敏感,与降水量正相关,与最高温、平均温负相关,未来降水量减少、温度升高将不利于这些地区春玉米生长。随着位置东移降水量逐渐以负效应为主,温度逐渐表现为正效应。除阜新、抚顺、本溪等部分地区呈现干旱化外,其他地区表现为不显著的湿润化趋势。朝阳、葫芦岛、阜新等地区春玉米产量对6月、7月的干湿变化较敏感,易受旱减产; 干旱化将使阜新春玉米生产形势变得严峻,朝阳、锦州、大连地区湿润化对春玉米生长有利; 沈阳、鞍山、辽阳和营口地区5—9月的干湿状况均对春玉米产量有影响,抚顺、本溪、铁岭等地区则易受6—8月的干湿状况影响,这些地区当前较适宜春玉米生长; 丹东地区易受涝减产,且湿润化趋势将会对该地区玉米生产造成不利影响。辽宁省不同气候要素及干湿变化对不同地区春玉米产量的影响效应有正有负,程度也各不相同,各地应因地制宜采取合理措施促进玉米丰产。

Climate Change During Growing Season and Its Effects on Spring Maize Yield in Liaoning Province

In order to clarify the impact of climate change on spring maize yield in Liaoning Province,based on the meteorological data of 30 stations from 1968 to 2017,and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,M-K trend analysis,correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of climatic factors,dry/wet changes during growing season and the relationship between those and spring maize yield.The results showed that the precipitation presented a decreasing trend except Dandong.In most areas,the temperature showed an increasing trend,the wind speed showed a significant decreasing trend,and the relative humidity showed no significant changing trend.The sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend except Liaoyang and Benxi.Precipitation,the highest temperature and average temperature were important factors which influenced the production of spring corn in Liaoning Province.Especially in Chaoyang,Huludao,Jinzhou,Fuxin and Dalian,spring maize was more sensitive to these factors.Relative meteorological yield was positively related to the precipitation,and negatively correlated with the highest temperature and average temperature during the growth period in these regions.In the future,less precipitation and higher temperature will be detrimental to the growth of spring corn.As moved eastward,precipitation gradually had a negative effect,while temperature gradually showed a positive effect.Apart from an arid trend observed in some areas of Fuxin,Fushun,Benxi,wetness showed an insignificant trend in the other areas.The spring corn yield in Chaoyang,Huludao and Fuxin was sensitive to the change of dryness and humidity in June and July,and spring corn was susceptible to drought and yield failure.The trend of dryness in Fuxin would make the situation more severe.The trend of wetness in Chaoyang,Fuxin,Jinzhou and Dalian was favorable to the growth of corn.In Shenyang,Anshan,Liaoyang and Yingkou,the dry and wet conditions from May to September influenced the yield,while the dry and wet conditions from June to August affected the yield in Fushun,Benxi and Tieling.These areas were more suitable for the growth of spring corn.Spring corn was vulnerable to waterlogging in Dandong,and the trend of wetting will have a negative impact on maize production in this area.There are positive and negative effects of different climatic factors and dry/wet changes in different areas on spring maize yield in Liaoning Province,and the degree also varies,so reasonable measures suitable for local circumstances should be taken to promote production of the maize all over the province.