农业生产性服务业集聚、城镇化与农民就业增长关联研究

选取2003—2019年浙江省各市的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,使用脉冲响应函数与方差分解方法,考察浙江省不同区域内农业生产性服务业集聚、农民就业增长、城镇化的长期动态影响。结果表明:农业生产性服务业集聚、农民就业增长、城镇化三者均具有自我发展的惯性;农业生产性服务业集聚在浙东北片区正向作用于农民就业增长,在浙西南则产生抑制性效果;浙东北地区城镇化抑制农民就业增长,而浙西南的城镇化对农民就业具有促进作用;浙东北、浙西南地区的城镇化与农业生产性服务业集聚之间呈正向促进关系。因此,应强化农民就业对集聚的正向效应;统筹省域内农业生产性服务业集聚式发展;完善城乡联动机制,促进集聚、就业、城镇化三者良性互动、协同发展。

The Association between Agricultural Productive Service Agglomeration,Urbanization and Farmers’ Employment Growth

This paper selects panel data of Zhejiang cities from 2003 —2019, establishes a PVAR model, and uses impulse response function and variance decomposition methods to examine the long-term dynamic effects of agricultural productive service industry agglomeration, farmers’ e mployment growth, and urbanization in different regions of Zhejiang Province. The results show that the agglomeration of the agricultural production service industry, farmers’ e mployment growth, and urbanization all have self-developing inertia. The agglomeration of the agricultural production service industry positively affects farmers’ e mployment growth in northeastern Zhejiang Province but inhibits it in southwestern Zhejiang Province. Urbanization in northeastern Zhejiang Province inhibits farmers’ employment growth, while urbanization in southwestern Zhejiang Province promotes farmers’ e mployment. The relationship between urbanization in northeastern Zhejiang Province and southwestern Zhejiang Province and the urbanization in the northeast and southwest Zhejiang has a positive relationship with the agglomeration of agricultural productive services. Therefore, we suggest: the positive effect of farmers’ e mployment on agglomeration should be strengthened;the agglomeration development of the agricultural production service industry in the province should be coordinated;the urban-rural linkage mechanism should be improved to promote the positive interaction and synergistic development of agglomeration, employment, and urbanization.