气候变化对甘肃农牧交错带主要粮食作物生产潜力的影响

为探讨热量、降水量及辐射资源变化对甘肃农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力的影响，基于甘肃农牧交错带45个气象站点1971-2020年的逐日气象资料以及主要粮食作物（春小麦、冬小麦和春玉米）生育期资料，利用数量统计分析方法计算3种粮食作物的气候生产潜力。结果表明，近50年来，甘肃农牧交错带春小麦、冬小麦和春玉米生育期内平均气温和降水量均呈上升趋势，太阳辐射量呈下降趋势；光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力分别从北到南、东北到西南和南到北呈递减趋势。热量变化对甘肃农牧交错带3种粮食作物的气候生产潜力有正效应，气候生产潜力平均增速分别为32.17、48.11和48.35 kg·hm^-2·a^-1。降水变化对该区域大部分地区春小麦和春玉米气候生产潜力有正效应，气候生产潜力平均增速分别为5.10和7.16 kg·hm^-2·a^-1；降水变化对部分区域冬小麦气候生产潜力产生负效应，气候生产潜力平均降速为0.12 kg·hm^-2·a^-1。辐射变化对该区域大部分地区3种粮食作物的气候生产潜力有负效应，气候生产潜力平均降速分别为1.81、2.35和8.66 kg·hm^-2·a^-1。总体来看，气候资源变化对甘肃农牧交错带大部分地区春小麦、冬小麦和春玉米气候生产潜力表现出正效应，但对临洮、灵台和靖远等地区的春玉米气候生产潜力有负效应。

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Productivities of Main Grain Crops in Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone of Gansu Province

Based on the daily meteorological data of 45 meteorological stations in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province from 1971 to 2020 and the growth period data of main grain crops(spring wheat, winter wheat and spring maize), the climate production potential of the three staple crops is calculated by using the quantitative statistical analysis method, and the effects of heat, precipitation, radiation and climate resource changes on the climate production potential of crops were studied. The results showed that in the past 50 years, the average temperature and precipitation of spring wheat, winter wheat and spring maize in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province had increased, and the solar radiation had decreased; the photosynthetic potential productivity of the three grain crops showed a decreasing trend from north to south; the light-temperature potential productivity of the three grain crops showed a decreasing trend from northeast to southwest; the climatic potential productivity of the three grain crops showed a decreasing trend from south to north. The change of heat resources had a positive effect on the climatic potential productivity of the three grain crops in the agro pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, which were 32.17 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring wheat, 48.11 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for winter wheat, and 48.35 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring maize. The change of precipitation resources had a positive effect on the climatic potential productivity of spring wheat and spring maize in the agro pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, which were 5.10 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring wheat, and 7.16 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring maize; the change of precipitation resources had a negative effect on the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in the agro pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province. The change of radiation resources had a negative effect on the climatic potential productivity of three grain crops in the agro pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, which were -1.81 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring wheat, -2.35 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for winter wheat, and -8.66 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for spring maize. The results showed the effects of climate change on climatic productivity of the main grain crops, and provided reliable scientific guidance for increasing grain productivity in agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province. Overall, climate change had a positive effect on the climate production potential of spring wheat, winter wheat and spring maize in most areas of the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, but had a negative effect on the climate production potential of spring maize in Lintao, Lingtai and Jingyuan.