基于马尔可夫模型的河川径流丰枯状态预测

依据山东半岛丘陵区大沽夹河1966～2003年逐年径流量，根据有序聚类和时间序列分析的马尔可夫预报模型。对大沽夹河2004年的丰枯状态进行了模拟预测。结果显示，2004年径流量的状态2发生率最高，为0．517，即为偏枯水年，与2004年实际情况一致。这说明运用马尔可夫模型进行河径流量的丰枯状态预报是有效可行的。

Forecasting of the Runoff Based on the Markov Model

This study aims to simulate and forecast the runoff of Dagujia River in 2004,which locates in Jiaodong hilly area,on the basis of its yearly runoff from 1966 to 2003 with sequential clustering and Markov model.The result showed that the incidence rate of state 2 of the runoff in 2004 is the highest,i.e.0.517,which means an inclined dry year and is consistent with the fact.So,it is practical to use the sequential clustering and Markov model to forecast the river runoff.