气候变化对江汉平原冬小麦播种期的影响

以位于湖北省江汉平原的天门市为研究区域,利用1955-2015年天门市冬小麦播种期内气象观测资料,采用相关回归等数理统计方法分析气候变化对冬小麦播种期的影响。结果表明,在湖北省江汉平原地区,传统播种期内气温呈逐渐升高趋势,气候适宜冬小麦播种期逐渐推迟,传统播种期内降水量呈逐渐减少的趋势。利用1981-2015年天门市国家一级农业气象观测站冬小麦观测资料进一步分析了按照传统播期播种冬小麦存在的利弊,得出在湖北省江汉平原地区,冬小麦的播种必须打破传统的种植观念,适当晚播,才有利于冬小麦的正常生长。

Effects of Climate Change on Sowing Time of Winter Wheat in Jianghan Plain

Taking Tianmen city located in the Jianghan plain in Hubei province as research area, base on meteorological ob-servation data of sowing time of winter wheat in Tianmen city from 1955 to 2015, the effects of climate change on sowing time of winter wheat were analyzed by mathematical statistics methods, such as the correlation regression analysis. The results showed that, in Jianghan plain of Hubei province, the temperature increased in traditional sowing period, suitable sowing time of winter wheat was delayed gradually, and precipitation gradually reduced in traditional sowing period. The disadvan-tages of sowing winter wheat according to traditional concepts were analyzed using observation data of winter wheat in Na-tional Agricultural Meteorological Observatory in Tianmen city from 1981-2015, the results showed that, in Jianghan plain of Hubei province, winter wheat sowing must break the traditional concept of planting, and should be delayed, this is con-ducive to the normal growth of winter wheat.