Spatio-temporal variability of drought characteristics across Pakistan

Climate change in Pakistan has a great impact on the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation and ultimately alters the frequency and duration of droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal trend analyses of precipitation and droughts were observed at 58 meteorological stations across Pakistan from 1981 to 2018. The existing trend analysis methods were evaluated to address the issue of serial correlation in the climatic data. Results of precipitation analysis showed significant decreasing trends in winter (November, December) and significant increasing trends were observed in summer (June and September) at a confidence level of 95 percent. The magnitude of the precipitation trends showed the highest variation during summer season and the least variation in winter season. Rotated Principal Component (RPC) analysis showed the severe droughts (high positive loading) in southeastern side (Sindh province) of Pakistan due to lack of summer rains. Furthermore, variance correction approaches are identified as the most suitable in coping with the effect of serial correlation. The highest drought frequencies were observed in the southern areas of Pakistan and the drought events are expected to occur more frequently in the late winter, early spring, and early autumn, while droughts were expected to occur least frequently in summer.