Assessment of the occurrence of climate change and its effects on planting date and growth duration of rainfed wheat in the western and northwestern regions of Iran

In this study, the effect of climate change on planting date and growth duration of rainfed wheat in the west and northwest parts of Iran has been investigated. The occurrence of climate change in the region was first evaluated for the base period (1992–2018) using two nonparametric tests of Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator. Then, the climatic parameters of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were simulated under RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2019–2039 based on downscaled output data of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) using LARS WG software. The growth period was obtained using a linear multiple regression model, which was selected based on R-square and accounted for 87% of its total variation. The results predicted that the average annual temperature will increase by 2 °C, while the average annual precipitation will increase by 30% by the end of 2039. Planting dates were determined based on two indices combining temperature and precipitation for the base and future periods. The results showed that climate change effects at the 2039 horizon will shorten by 18 days the wheat growth period and the appropriate planting time for rainfed wheat will be reduced by 2–19 days.