| 我国家养动物甲烷排放量变化趋势预测（1990年─2020年） |
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| 作者单位： | 农业部环境保护科研监测所 |
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| 摘 要： | 以我国家养动物和动物废弃物甲烷排放量现状估算值为基础，根据我国人均肉类需求量和人口总量的变化计算我国肉类总需求量（１９９０－２０２０年），分高、中、低三个方案用ＩＰＣＣ推荐的计算方法和文献１提供的计算系数对各年度我国家养动物（牛）甲烷排放量进行预测。预测结果表明：２０２０年我国家养动物（牛）的甲烷排放量高方案为１４．５４Ｔｇ／ａ；中方案为７．９９８Ｔｇ／ａ；低方案为６．０９６Ｔｇ／ａ。
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| 关 键 词： | 家养动物，甲烷，预测，排放量 |
The Forecast of the Tendency of CH_4 Emission from Domestic Animals inChina |
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| .--- Progrom AEPI. The Forecast of the Tendency of CH_4 Emission from Domestic Animals inChina[J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science( J. Agro-Environ. Sci.), 1995, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | .--- Progrom AEPI |
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| Affiliation: | .85-913-04-05 Progrom AEPI |
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| Abstract: | ased on the presently estimated amount of CH_4 emitted from domesticanimals and their wastes,the present requirement for meats and the incr-ease of the requirement for meats from l990 to 2020,the amount of CH_4emitted from domestic animals every year was forecasted using the compu-tation methods recommended by IPCC and the calculation coefficient givenin reference l with low,middle and high level.The calculation results sh-owed that the amount of CH_4 emitted from domestic animals was 6.096 Tg7.998 Tg and l4.54 Tg for low middle and high levels,respectively,in theyear of 2020. |
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| Keywords: | domestical animal farming CH_4 Emission forecast |
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