塔里木盆地南缘近54年沙尘天气的变化特征及其未来趋势预测

利用塔里木盆地南缘六个代表站近54年的沙尘天气的气象资料,使用小波变换等方法,分析了近54年沙尘天气的变化特征并预测了未来的变化趋势。结果表明:近54年的沙尘天气变率较大,线性下降趋势显著;通过小波分析得出年沙尘日数的变化存在大约40年、19年、8~10年以及4年等周期,而年沙尘暴日数的变化存在大约32年、15~18年、6~8年等周期;年沙尘日数的突变大体发生在20世纪60年代后期的由少到多的变化以及80年代后期的由多到少的突变;年沙尘暴日数的突变在1961年、1979年与1988年前后。最后根据小波变换得出的主周期变化规律,预测在未来二三十年沙尘天气有波动增多的趋势。

The changing characteristic of sand-dust weather in recent 54 years and future trend forecast in the southern margin of Tarim Basin

Based on the sand-dust weather and other meteorological data of six stations in the southern margin of Tarim Basin in recent 54 years,the change characteristics of sand-dust weather in recent 54 years were analyzed and future trend was forecasted using wavelet transform method.The results were as follows: The sand-dust weather had changed sharply and declined significantly in recent 54 years.The change of annual sand-dust days which contained about 40-year,19-year,8～10-year and 4-year cycle mutated at about the late 1960s and late 1980s and the annual sand-dust storm which contained about 32-year,15～18-year and 6～8-year cycle mutated at about 1961,1979 and 1988.Finally,the result that sand-dust weather will increase in the next two to three decades by the main cycle obtained from wavelet transform is forecasted.