| 基于VDDT的红原县草地景观动态变化模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雪莲,干晓宇,道里刚,张洪轩,董奎,游成铭,符佩斌,干友民.基于VDDT的红原县草地景观动态变化模拟[J].草业学报,2015,24(5):217-223. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雪莲 干晓宇 道里刚 张洪轩 董奎 游成铭 符佩斌 干友民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川农业大学动物科技学院,四川 雅安 625014; 2.四川大学建筑与环境学院,四川 成都 610065; 3.四川省草原科学研究院,四川 成都 611731; 4.四川农业大学林学院,四川 成都 625014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目，春晖计划项目，四川省科技厅项目，四川省科技厅支撑项目(13ZC1635)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用ENVI软件对2000和2010年红原县遥感影像进行解译,建立红原县草地资源数据库。设定9种干扰变化的驱动因子,利用VDDT以2000到2001年草地景观转换概率和干扰因子出现情况,对2020年红原县草地景观的动态变化进行模拟分析。结果表明,VDDT在模拟红原县草地景观变化动态中具有较高的可行性(斑块面积拟合度为0.9325,斑块数目拟合度为0.8833)。通过对影响草地景观格局变化的主要因子进行分析,表明红原县草地具有明显退化趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 草地景观 草地资源 变化 动态模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-11-28; |
Dynamic simulation of landscape change using VDDT in Hongyuan County |
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| ZHANG Xue-Lian,GAN Xiao-Yu,DAO Li-Gang,ZHANG Hong-Xuan,DONG Kui,YOU Cheng-Ming,FU Pei-Bin,GAN You-Min.Dynamic simulation of landscape change using VDDT in Hongyuan County[J].Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2015,24(5):217-223. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xue-Lian GAN Xiao-Yu DAO Li-Gang ZHANG Hong-Xuan DONG Kui YOU Cheng-Ming FU Pei-Bin GAN You-Min |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Animal Science and Technology, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625014, China; 2.College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; 3.Sichuan Grassland Science Academy, Chengdu 611731, China; 4.College of Forest, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 625014, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on remote sensing images of Hongyuan County collected between 2000 and 2010, a landscape classification map and grassland resource database were produced using ENVI software. In addition, 9 disturbance types were chosen to simulate the landscape succession to the year 2020 using the United States department of Agriculture Vegetation Dynamics Development (VDDT) tool based on the transition probability for 2000-2001. The results showed that: 1) In the 20 years, grassland decreased by about 824 km2, and forest by 191 km2, however, the unutilized area was predicted to increase by about 89 km2; 2) The VDDT tool provided an acceptable simulation of the landscape succession as indicated by the Hongyuan County land use maps for 2000 and 2010 R2=0.9325(Area), R2=0.8833(Number)]; 3) The simulation showed an obvious degeneration trend for grassland in Hongyuan county. Factors affecting the future landscape pattern and rate of grassland degeneration were also analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | landscape grassland resource variation dynamic simulation |
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