中国南方干旱灾害风险评估

干旱灾害风险评估是灾害风险管理的关键途径。通过分析干旱灾害风险成因,从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力四大因子入手,以灾害学理论为基础,构建干旱灾害风险评估模型,然后根据相关气象、地理环境和社会经济数据,在GIS平台上对中国南方地区进行了干旱灾害风险评估。得到以下结论:1)干旱致灾因子的高危险区主要位于云南省的中东部以及与四川的交界处,川西高山高原区和东部盆地的遂宁、宜宾市,以及广东东部沿海地区;2)孕灾环境的高脆弱区主要分布在云南中东部、四川东部盆地以及贵州西北部;3)承灾体的高暴露区主要位于广东东部、雷州半岛和沿海地区,广西南部以及四川盆地的大部分地区;4)防灾减灾能力较高的区域主要位于重庆西部、四川西部、云南东北部、贵州中部、广西南部以及广东中东部地区;5)干旱灾害的高风险区主要位于四川东部盆地、四川与云南交界处、云南东北大部分地区、广西西南部以及广东东北部和雷州半岛;干旱灾害的低风险区主要位于四川北部山区以及广东和广西的北部。

Assessment of drought disaster risk in southern China

A critical element of risk management is drought risk assessment. Through in-depth analysis of factors linked to drought risk, and application of principles of natural disaster management, a drought disaster risk assessment model was constructed. The model assesses the level of danger posed by the disaster-inducing factors, the vulnerability of the disaster-prone environment, the level of exposure of the territorial body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in place. The model was then used to conduct an assessment of drought risk for the southern part of China using GIS data and local meteorological, geographical environment and socio-economic data. The model indicated: 1) the higher risk areas for disaster-inducing factors are mainly in the mid-east of Yunnan province, on the boundary between Yunnan and Sichuan province, the mountain area of western Sichuan, the basin of eastern Sichuan and the eastern coastal area of Guangdong; 2) The more disaster-prone areas are mainly in the mid-east of Yunnan, the eastern Sichuan basin and northwestern Guizhou province; 3) The territorial bodies with greatest exposure are mainly in the eastern, coastal area and Leizhou peninsula of Guangdong province, the southern region of Guangxi province and the Sichuan basin; 4) Higher regional disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities are mainly found in western Chongqing, western Sichuan, northeastern Yunnan, central Guizhou, southern Guangxi and mid-east of Guangdong province; 5) Zones with high drought disaster risk are mainly in the eastern Sichuan basin, on the boundary between Yunnan and Sichuan, in northeastern Yunnan, southwestern Guangxi, northeastern Guangdong and the Leizhou peninsula. Zones with low drought disaster risk are found mainly in the eastern mountainous areas of Sichuan, and in eastern Guangdong and Guangxi provinces.