| 基于BP神经网络和D-S理论的塔里木河输水目标预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱春江,唐德善.基于BP神经网络和D-S理论的塔里木河输水目标预报研究[J].新疆农业科学,2006,43(2):156-158. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱春江 唐德善 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学商学院,江苏南京,210098;河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 引进国际先进农业科技计划(948计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对神经网络输水目标模型输出的不稳定性,提出采用神经网络与证据理论相结合的输水目标(BPDS)模型.采用BP神经网络输出作为基本可信度分配函数,使用D-S理论将信息进行二次融合.并用输水实测数据对模型进行验证,结果表明预测模型具有可行性和实用性,为塔里木河流域水资源的合理利用以及水权目标管理提供了科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 塔里木河 输水目标 BP神经网络 证据理论 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4330（2006）02-0156-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-01 |
Study on the Discharge Target Forecast of Tarim River Based on BP Neural Network and D-S Theory |
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| ZHU Chun-jiang,TANG De-shan.Study on the Discharge Target Forecast of Tarim River Based on BP Neural Network and D-S Theory[J].Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences,2006,43(2):156-158. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Chun-jiang TANG De-shan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Business, Hohai Unizersity , Nanjing 210098, China ;2. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | The discharge target models combining BP neural network with D-S theory was put forward,based on the instability of the output of BP neural network model.The output of BP neural network was adopted as BPAF(basic probability assignment function) to fose information twice by using D-S theory and verifying the model.The result indicates that this model has feasibility and practicability.The discharge target forecast model provides scientific gist for the reasonable use and water right target management of the water resources of Tarim River Valley. |
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| Keywords: | Tarim River discharge target BP neural network DS theory forecast |
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