基于森林生态系统服务功能预测21世纪上半世纪中国林地资源需求(英文)

基于森林生态系统服务概念,建立了一个新的林地资源预测模型,预测中国2010-2050年的林地资源需求。通过耦合森林生态系统服务功能与森林分类经营之间的关系,预测在假设生态公益林提供生态系统服务功能需求,商品生产林供给原木和工业用材的前提下,同时考虑了人口增长、社会经济发展目标、森林管理方式和技术进步等要素对森林资源的影响。这一模型预测表明,2010、2020、2050年林地资源的需求量将分别达到2.448×108、2.612×108、3.622×108 hm2。结论表明,未来我国森林资源存在较大缺口,尤其是缺乏以提供生态系统服务功能为主的生态公益林。建议林业部门必须注重加强森林资源可持续经营,注重提升森林生态系统服务能力。

Forestland prediction of China based on forest ecosystem services for the first half of 21st century

A new model was developed to predict forestland demand of China during the years of 2010-2050 in terms of the concept of for-est ecosystem services. On the basis of the relationship between forest ecosystem services and classified forest management,we hypothe-sized that the ecological-forest provides ecological services,whereas commercial-forest supplies wood and timber production,and the in-fluences of the growth of population,social-economic development target,forest management methods and the technology changes on for-est resources were also taken into account. The prediction reveals that the demand of total forestland of China will be 244.8,261.2 and 362.2 million ha by the year 2010,2020 and 2050,respectively. The results demonstrated that China will be confronted with a shortage of forest resources,especially with lack of ecological-oriented forests,in the future. It is suggested that sustainable management of forest resources must be reinforced and more attention should be drown no enhancing the service function of forest ecosystem.