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Effects of climate change on spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone tracks and their implications for coastal agriculture in Myanmar
Authors:Hirano  Akira
Affiliation:1.Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Ohwashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8686, Japan
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Abstract:

Important aspects for understanding the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) are the frequency of TCs and their tracking patterns. Coastal areas are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and associated storm surges brought on by TCs. Rice production in Myanmar relies strongly on low-lying coastal areas. This study aims to provide insights into the effects of global warming on TCs and the implications for sustainable development in vulnerable coastal areas in Myanmar. Using TC records from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship dataset during the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012, a hot spot analysis based on Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics was conducted to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of TC tracks along the coast of Myanmar. The results revealed notable changes in some areas along the central to southern coasts during the study period. These included a considerable increase in TC tracks (p value?

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