南方水稻黑条矮缩病测报技术研究

研究2 种数学分析模型对南方水稻黑条矮缩病的预报效果，为该病害的预测预报提供参考。以2006—2015 年广东省化州市晚稻南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率为原始数据，分别采用多项式回归和灰色系统GM(1,1)预测方法建立南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率的预测模型，分析其预测效果。结果表明，采用多项式回归和灰色系统GM(1,1)分别建立了晚稻南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率预测预报模型：y=5.2530-5.8923x 2.1280x2-0.1559x3和y(1)(k 1)=-51.1797e-0.4798k 66.8097，2 种预测模型均能较好地预测南方水稻黑条矮缩病的发病趋势，为该病害的预测提供了一种准确有效的方法。预测预报模型可以应用于防病减灾工程。

Forecast Techniques of Southern Rice Black-streaked Dwarf Virus

The effect of two mathematical models on southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus was studied to provide reference for the prediction of the disease. Based on the original data of Incidence of late southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus in Huazhou City, Guangdong Province, Polynomial regression method and Grey system GM (1,1) prediction method are applied to build the prediction model of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus incidence rate and to analyze the prediction results. The results show that, the late southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus incidence prediction models established by polynomial regression and grey system GM (1, 1) are: y=5.2530-5.8923x 2.1280x2-0.1559x3 and y(1)(k 1)=-51.1797e-0.4798k 66.8097. The two prediction models can well predict the incidence trend of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus, and provide an accurate and effective method for the prediction of the disease. The predictive model can be applied to the project of disease prevention and mitigation.