基于证据理论的农业机械选型风险因素评价方法

农业机械选型是国家机具补贴政策实施的核心步骤之一,其实施过程具有复杂性、不确定性以及难以准确度量风险因素的特点.该研究借助证据理论的相关原理,提出基于证据理论的农业机械选型风险评价方法.从需求、能力、技术、合作、产品性能及评标决策支持系统开发6个方面,分析了农业机械选型过程中的主要风险因素及其内涵、来源、后果集.在此基础上,根据证据理论的相关概念和决策步骤,采取问卷调查的方式获得相关证据,确定出基本可信度分配函数和信度函数,并采用Dempster合成法则对证据进行合成;然后构造风险评价绩效函数,用于比较各个因素风险的大小.实证分析表明,利用D-S证据推理方法对农业机械选型风险因素进行评价具有一定的有效性和实用价值.

Method for evaluating the risk of selecting types of agricultural machinery based on evidence theory

Agricultural machinery type selecting is the one of the key steps of farm machine purchase subsidy object, which has characteristics of complexity, uncertainty and imprecise. The evidence theory was applied to risk evaluation of agricultural machinery type selecting and an evaluation method for the risk evaluation was proposed. In this paper, some primary factors of risks and their sources were analyzed and risk sequels were established by considering the risks of demand, ability, technique, corporation, product capability, and decision support system of bidding evaluation. The basic probability assignment functions and the belief functions were determined according to the evidences collected through requiring surveys and the concepts and decision-making procedures based on the evidence theory. The Dumpster rule was adopted to integrate those evidences. Performance function was constructed and the risks of agricultural machinery type selecting can be compared. The case analysis shows that the evidence reasoning method is efficient and practical for risk evaluation of agricultural machinery type selecting.