A new model for predicting the flight activity of Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

The grape vine moth, Lobesia botrana (Denis and Schiffermüller) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), attacks vineyards mostly in Southern Europe and Northern Africa. The efficiency of most control methods depends on the treatment of pest populations at their most susceptible stages, therefore the prediction of the moth’s development cycle would help greatly in determining an optimal treatment schedule. One strategy for protecting against this pest is based on the day of maximum flight of males per generation (peak flight), when the mating between males and females and the laying of eggs reaches its maximum. The knowledge of these times would enable us to decide the kind of insecticide and the best time to target it. The time of maximum flight can be predicted by the Touzeau model of accumulated average daily temperature exceeding the development threshold. As shown, the fit of this model on data from the Ribera del Duero region in Spain is not accurate enough. Therefore, we propose an empirical and biologically plausible model based on logistic transformation of daily temperatures, which proves a better fit and permits simple inclusion of additional variables such as relative humidity.