人口结构、财政支出刚性对地方政府性债务的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的研究

根据2012年各省级政府地方政府债务数据和1995~2013年省级层面地方政府债务水平的面板数据，运用固定效应模型、差分GMM和系统GMM模型，考量人口流出比例、老年人口抚养比、财政支出刚性对地方政府债务增长的影响。结果表明：人口流出比例越高、老年人口抚养比越高，财政支出刚性越高，地方政府负债率越高。鉴此，应严格政府举债程序，改变以户籍为导向的财政转移支付政策，理顺各级政府之间的财税关系。

Demographic Structure, Fiscal Expenditure Rigidity and Local Government Debt: A Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

In this paper, we utilize the provincial level panel data of local government debt in 1995-2013 with fixed effects model, difference GMM and System GMM model to analyze the influence of the population outflow proportion, elderly population dependency ratio, rigidity of fiscal expenditure on local government debt growth. The results show that: the higher the proportion of population outflow, the higher the proportion of the elderly population, the higher the financial expenditure, the higher the local government debt ratio. Monitoring government borrowing process, improving fiscal transfer payment rules, optimizing the relationship between fiscal and tax policy, etc., are crucial to strengthen local government debt management.