中国利率市场化程度与跨境贸易人民币结算量的关系研究

运用向量自回归（VAR）模型分析我国利率市场化程度与跨境贸易人民币结算量之间的相互关系，运用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应等方法对模型进行计量经济意义的检验。结论表明：利率市场化程度与跨境贸易人民币结算量的关系是从初期的相互促进作用逐渐减弱最终趋于平稳。对此，要完善人民币汇率形成机制，提高利率与汇率的相关性，有序推动资本项目自由兑换，共同稳步推进我国利率市场化与人民币国际化进程。

Study on the Relationship Between the Degree of Interest Rate Marketization and Cross-border Trade in RMB Settlement

This paper Uses VAR model to analyze the relationship between the degree of interest rate marketization and cross-border trade in RMB settlement. We employ granger causality test and impulse response method to measure the economic significance of model. The conclusion shows that the degree of interest rate marketization and cross-border trade in RMB settlement both promote each other in the beginning, but the promotion levels off gradually. Based on the above analysis, we should improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the correlation of interest rate and exchange rate, and promote the capital account convertibility orderly, so that it can push forward China''s interest rate marketization and the internationalization of RMB steadily.