大连气温变化趋势分析及对农业的影响

[目的]研究大连气温变化趋势，为农业可持续发展提供气候依据。[方法]应用最小二乘法进行线性拟合及Escel程序，按阶段分析气温变化趋势及增温幅度。[结果]在近59a里，平均气温升高1．9℃，∑T≥10℃积温增加了400℃。1988年是增温的拐点，近20a年平均气温比前39年升高1．3℃。冬半年气温升高幅度大于夏半年，以1-4月增温最明显。[结论]气温升高，总热量增加，对农业利弊同在。随着气温增高，农业结构需要调整，农业气象指标需要重新研究与确认。

Dalian Temperature Variation Trend Analysis and Its Impact on Agriculture

[Objective] The aim was to study the variation trend of Dalian temperature in order to provide climate basis for agriculture sustainable development. [Method] The least squareMethodwas adopted to do linear fitting and Escel procedure. Temperature variation trend and wanning range were analyzed according to stages. [Result] In recent 59 a, average temperature increased by 1.9 ℃ , ∑T≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase of 400 ℃. Warming in 1988 was the inflection point. In recent 20 a, the average temperature increased 1. 3 ℃ than previous 39 a. Temperature increase rate in winter half year was bigger than in summer half year, especially in Jan. to Apr. [Conclusion] Total calories increased with temperature increasing. In order realize agriculture sustainable development, the structure need to be reintegiation and agro-meteorological indicators need to be reconfirm and study.