我国五大粮食主产区农业抗旱能力评价的敏感性分析

为探讨我国五大粮食主产区对抗旱能力影响较显著的敏感性因素,对主产区农业抗旱能力进行综合评价,进而从指标选取、指标权重及指标合成方法3个方面对评价结果进行敏感性分析。结果表明,五大粮食主产区的农业抗旱能力由强到弱排序为黄淮海平原长江中游及江淮地区四川盆地松嫩平原三江平原。同一指标对不同区域的农业抗旱能力评价结果影响程度不同,耕地有效灌溉率、农机动力系数和人均GDP中的任何一个指标都会引起黄淮海平原区、长江中游及江淮地区以及四川盆地农业抗旱能力排名发生变动,而对三江平原和松嫩平原的排名却无影响。同时,不同区域影响农业抗旱能力的敏感性因素有所差异,除农业干旱程度、耕地有效灌溉率是各粮食主产区农业抗旱能力均最为敏感的影响因素之外,不同区域对人均GDP、农机动力系数等指标表现出不同的敏感性。相比于加法合成,本研究结果显示乘法合成对指标水平的差异反映更为敏感,区分各评价对象的灵敏度相对加法合成更高些。

Sensitivity analysis of agriculture drought resistance in five main grain producing areas in China

In order to discuss sensitive factors affecting agriculture drought resistance of five main grain producing areas in country significantly,this paper firstly conducted the comprehensive evaluation of agriculture drought resistance,and then carried on the sensitivity analysis of the evaluation results from three aspects,including index selection,index weight and index aggregation methods.The analysis results show that the ranking of agriculture drought resistance from strong to weak is:Huang-Huai-Hai Plain > middle Yangtze River and Jianghuai region > Sichuan Basin > Songnen Plain > Sanjiang Plain.The same indicator has influence with different degree on the agriculture drought resistance of different regions.The rate of efficient irrigation and agricultural machinery dynamic coefficient and per capita GDP,each of these three indicators will cause the change of agriculture drought resistance ranking of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,middle Yangtze River and Jianghuai region and Sichuan Basin.However,they have no influence on ranking of Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain.Besides,the sensitive factors affecting the agriculture drought resistance in different regions are different.Agricultural aridity degree and rate of efficient irrigation are both the most sensitive factors to agriculture drought resistance in five main grain producing areas,but different regions show different sensitivity to per capita GDP and agricultural machinery dynamic coefficient and other indicators.Compared with the additive aggregation method,the multiplication aggregation method reflects the difference in the levels of indicators more sensitively.And it could distinguish different evaluation objects more sensitively just in this study task.