我国农村土地经营模式的转型趋势及空间分异特征分析

基于农村土地经营模式的基本内涵辨析和界定，构建了土地经营模式定量分析方法和层次结构模型，分析全国31个省市行政区2004—2013年土地经营模式的历史演变特征、转型驱动力以及未来转型趋势。结果显示：1）土地经营模式历史演变时空差异明显，总体上粗放分散地区发展快，集约规模地区发展稳中求进，全国土地经营模式东部地区集约度和规模度大于西部，南部地区的集约度和规模度大于北部；2）土地经营模式转型驱动力包括非农经济发展水平、自然资源禀赋、农业科技水平和劳动力文化素质水平，其中非农经济发展水平和自然资源禀赋为主要驱动力；3）全国土地经营模式转型趋势划分为平稳发展区、集约规模发展区和特殊发展区。

Temporal and spatial trends of farmland management transition in China

The transition of farmland management patterns in China,which is shifted from decentralized and extensive operation to scale and intensive operation,is not only the key to improve the grain yield,but also one of the most important components in modern agricultural development and new-type urbanization.For this reason,an quantitative analytic method and analytic hierarchy process based on the fundamental connotation of cultivated land management mode are established to explain the evolution of rural land management patterns in 1999-2008 at provincial level. And factor analytical method and cluster analysis method are then adopted to illustrate the driving forces and development tendency of the transition of land management mode.The results demonstrated that:1) The farmland management patterns changed obviously during the period from 2004 to 2013.The areas which were under decentralized and extensive land operation type have a faster growth,while the scale and intensive areas have a relatively flat growth.Meanwhile,the extent of intensification and scale-degree in east region of China is higher than in the west,and the south region is higher than in the north region.2) The results of factor analysis show that the driving forces of the transition of farmland management patterns focus on four dimensions,including nonagricultural economic development level,natural resources,agriculture science development level and labor educational level.The first two factors play a leading role among all driving forces.3) The developing tendency of farmland management patterns of 31 provinces in China are aggregated into four regions,including steady development area,intensive and scale development area and special cases area.