陕西省水利投资对农业经济增长的影响——基于阿尔蒙多项式分布滞后模型的实证分析

利用1982—2011年的统计数据,构建多项式分布滞后模型,协整分析水利投资与农业经济增长之间的长期均衡关系;采用阿尔蒙(Almon)多项式变换实证估计水利投资滞后分布,考察水利投资各滞后期对农业经济增长的作用趋势。研究结果表明:陕西省农业总产值、农业劳动力人数、年末常用耕地面积、农业机械总动力和水利建设投资之间存在长期均衡关系;水利资本在投入生产后的第3年开始对农业经济增长有显著促进作用,第5年达到最大,第6年下降;水利投资对农业经济增长的动态弹性和长期弹性分别为1.204和1.256。

Effect of water investment on agricultural economic growth in Shanxi Province

Water investment plays a significant role in agricultural production.It is not only the key to keep the development of agricultural and rural area,but also the power to promote agricultural economic growth.Based on statistical data of Shaanxi Province during the period of 1982-2011,this paper examined the relationship between water investment and agricultural economic growth through the co-integration test.There was a long-run equilibrium relationship in agricultural sector between production inputs (farm labor force,cultivated land,farm machinery and water investment) and agricultural output.To support the study,polynomial distributed lag models and Almon method were taken to estimate the impact of water investment on agricultural economic growth.Specifically,the effect of the lagged water investment variable changes was investigated.The study showed that water investment had a positive promotion to agricultural economic growth which beginning at the third year after they had been applied.This effect reached the top at the fifth year and went down the sixth year.The dynamic elasticity of water investment against agricultural economic growth was 1.204,and long-run elasticity 1.256.