基于PMP模型的农户苜蓿种植补贴效果实证分析——以河北省黄骅市为例

为分析苜蓿种植补贴效果,从而优化种植结构、促进畜牧业健康发展、增加农户收入、改善生态环境,在对我国重要的苜蓿种植基地——河北省黄骅市农户苜蓿种植情况进行抽样调查的基础上,通过构建PMP模型,计算不同苜蓿种植补贴政策对于农户增收及种植面积扩大的影响。结果表明:对苜蓿种植户实施直接补贴不会改变农户的种植结构,而实施与播种面积挂钩的苜蓿种植补贴则既能有效增加苜蓿种植面积,又能显著增加经济效益;苜蓿产品价格和粮食价格的波动都会影响补贴效果:粮食价格上升对苜蓿种植面积具有负向影响,对农户增收具有正向影响;而苜蓿自身价格上升对补贴效果具有正向影响。因此建议:政府制定补贴政策时应当区分专业苜蓿种植区域与非专业苜蓿种植区域;苜蓿种植补贴额度应当随着外部条件的变化及时做出调整;制定苜蓿种植补贴政策时应综合考虑引起种植面积变化的各种因素,既要保证苜蓿种植户的稳定收益,又要考虑苜蓿产品稳定供给。

Empirical analysis of alfalfa subsidies' effect based on PMP model: A case study of Huanghua City, Hebei Porvince

PMP model is used to analysis the effect of the subsidy policy on alfalfa planting farmers in Huanghua City,Hebei Province based on the survey data.The results show that the implementation of direct subsidies to alfalfa growers does not change the production structure of the farmers;while the subsidies linked acreage can effectively enhance the enthusiasm of farmers planting alfalfa and significantly increase the economic efficiency of farmers.The results also show that alfalfa product prices and grain price fluctuations affect the effect of subsidies.Grain prices affect the effect of subsidies on alfalfa planting area expanded in the opposite direction and affects farmers'' income in the same direction.Alfalfa price affects the effect of subsidies in the same direction in these two areas.According to the measurement results,we suggest that:The development of the government subsidy policy should distinguish between professional and non-professional alfalfa planting area;Alfalfa subsidies should change with external conditions and make timely adjustments;Alfalfa subsidies must consider factors which can change the alfalfa planting acreage,and guarantee alfalfa growers having stable income.