| 最优组合模型在凹叶厚朴树皮产量预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘素青,李际平,周元满. 最优组合模型在凹叶厚朴树皮产量预测中的应用研究[J]. 江西农业大学学报, 2007, 29(3): 393-397 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘素青 李际平 周元满 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东海洋大学,农学院,广东,湛江,524088;中南林业科技大学,湖南,长沙,412100 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省教育厅重点课题资助(05A027) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出无约束最优组合模型和有约束最优组合模型,这两种模型均可以极大地改善凹叶厚朴树皮产量预测效果。在这两种模型中,其中约束模型的残差平方和为64.251 7,无约束模型的残差平方为0,无约束模型远远优于有约束模型。在模型应用中,提出了这两种模型效率和预测效果的检验方法。两种模型的效率显著提高,显著性水平均在0.01以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 最优组合模型 预测 树皮产量 凹叶厚朴 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2286（2007）03-0393-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-03-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-032007-04-05 |
Building of the Optimal Combination Model and Its Application to the Prediction of Magnolia Officinalis Bark Yield |
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| LIU Su-qing,LI Ji-ping,ZHOU Yuan-man. Building of the Optimal Combination Model and Its Application to the Prediction of Magnolia Officinalis Bark Yield[J]. Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis, 2007, 29(3): 393-397 |
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| Authors: | LIU Su-qing LI Ji-ping ZHOU Yuan-man |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Agronomy, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China; 2. South Center University of Forest Science and Technology, Changsha 412100, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper deals with the building of the optimal combination models.i.e.the restriction model and the restriction-free model.The residual error of the restriction model is 64.252 7 and that of the restriction-free model is 0.000 0.The restriction model excels the restriction-free model in predicting the bark yield of magnolia of officinalis.The predicting efficiency and its testing method in their application are put forward.The efficiency of the models is over 0.01 on average. |
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| Keywords: | optimal combination model predict bark yield magnolia officinalis |
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