松扁叶蜂种群变动指数灰色预测

GREY PREDICTION OF THE POPULATION CHANGE INDEX OF ACANTHOLYDA POSTICALIS MATSUMURA

Based mainly on limited historical information, the grey systems analysis gives a relia-ble prediction for future, which is the most conspicuous characteristics of grey systems the-ory. The regularity affecting the change of population of A. posticalis was found in the lightof its life table, and predicted using the analysis theory of developing dynamics in grey sys-tems. By using the method such shortcomings in traditional establishment of models couldbe eliminated as requiring a lot of data and typical distribution, and much work of calcula-tion. It is considered a new way of predicting forest pests and diseases.