| 基于离散二阶差分算法的中国碳排放预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵息,齐建民,刘广为.基于离散二阶差分算法的中国碳排放预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013(1):63-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵息 齐建民 刘广为 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学管理与经济学部;中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 在系统研究国内外目前碳排放预测文献的基础上,总结其中的预测方法,发现方法中的局限性。离散二阶差分方程预测模型是基于时间序列的预测方法,能够有效弥补目前预测方法的局限性。在论述离散二阶差分方程预测模型(DDEPM)推导过程的基础上,应用DDEPM方法,借助Matlab软件,基于1980-2009年的碳排放数据,计算中国2020年碳排放的碳排放量,并估算1984-2009年碳排放预测值的误差率;随后基于1980-2009年的中国GDP数据,应用相同的方法,对2020年中国GDP的数值进行计算。通过单位GDP碳排放的运算,计算出中国降低单位GDP碳排放的潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放预测离散 GDP预测 单位GDP碳排放 离散二阶差分方法 |
China carbon emission forecast based on the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model |
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| ZHAO Xi,QI Jianmin,LIU Guangwei.China carbon emission forecast based on the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013(1):63-69. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xi QI Jianmin LIU Guangwei |
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| Institution: | 1(1.School of Management and Economic,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,P.R.China; 2.School of Economy and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266555,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the present situation of the carbon emission forecast studies,the prediction method of the carbon emission was found.After discussed the derivation process of the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model(DDEPM),we used the Matlab programming to forecast the carbon emission and GDP data of 2020 according to the carbon emission and GDP(annul data 1980-2009).The development law of carbon emission per GDP can be found from the carbon emission per GDP(annul data 1980-2009),then we analyzed the carbon emission per GDP prediction(annul data 2010-2020) to find the law of the 11 years,and calculated the carbon emission per GDP(annul data 1980-2020) to estimate the carbon emission per GDP decrease potentiality of China. |
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| Keywords: | Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model carbon emission prediction GDP prediction carbon emission per GDP |
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