发达国家与发展中国家碳排放比较及对中国的启示

采用IPCC法计算了中国、印度、美国、德国2001-2009年的化石能源碳排放额度。研究表明:(1)研究时段内中国和印度能源消费碳排放总量大幅增长,美国趋于稳定,德国下降趋势明显;(2)2009年,中国的人均碳排放量为1.59tC/人,虽高于印度的0.42tC/cap,但远低于德国的3.61tC/cap,更低于美国的5.93tC/cap。(3)中、印、美、德四国中,德国化石能源消费结构最优,美国次之,印度第三,中国最差,主要表现为煤炭消费比重大,天然气比重低。中国能源消费碳排放总量增长趋势在短期内难以逆转。据此提出了中国能源结构调整建议。

Comparison of carbon emissions between developed countries and the developing countries and its inspiration to China

Using the method given by IPCC,We calculated the carbon emissions of fossil consumption of China,India,America and Germany from 2001 to 2009.The result showed that:(1)The carbon emissions of fossil consumption of China and India increased much more during the research period.China has been the largest energy consumption and carbon emissions country in the world since 2007.The carbon emission of America was steady,and that in Germany decreased obviously.(2) China's carbon emission per capita was higher than India,but much less than America and Germany.In 2009,China 's carbon emission per capita was 1.59tC / cap,India was 0.42 tC / cap,Germany was 3.61tC / cap,America was 5.93tC / cap.German's fossil energy consumption structure was optimization,China's fossil energy consumption structure was the worst,they were mainly shown in following aspects: the coal consumption proportion was the largest,and clean and efficient natural gas proportions were far lower than that in the developed countries,such as America and Germany.With carbon emissions per capita increasing,the growth trend of energy consumption emissions in China's was difficult to reverse in the short term.Countermeasures for Chinese energy structure adjustment and optimization were put forwarded.