Managing invasive plants on public conservation forestlands: Application of a bio-economic model

Public conservation forestlands protect natural resources, provide wildlife habitat, and service a multi-billion dollar recreation industry. Invasive upland plants (IPs) threaten to dramatically reduce the flow of goods and services from these lands. In the late 1990s, a Florida (USA) state program began combating IPs on public conservation lands. By 2007, the program had controlled roughly 1/3 of the 1.5 million IP-infested acres, primarily due to a surge in expenditures that began in 2001 and peaked in 2005. This study evaluates the effectiveness and efficiency of the program by simulating the costs and benefits of IP control through 2016 under five feasible policy alternatives: (I) Do nothing, (II) Maintenance control, (III) 2001–2004 level (of program spending), (IV) 2005 level, and (V) Maximum net present value. To evaluate the policies, we construct a bio-economic model that is parameterized using observations of IP coverage and data from 11 state regions. Given the uncertain nature of IP spread, we simulate the policies' economic impacts under two plausible spread rates. Simulation results indicate that the program's recent efforts are highly effective – generating up to $865.1 million in present value net benefits through 2016 – but less efficient than more costly, front-loaded spending that can generate up to 4.37 times more net benefits.