新疆耕地和粮食灰色关联分析

收集整理1949—2003年新疆耕地、人口与粮食等资料,定量分析耕地的数量变化、质量状况。用线性回归法预测人口变化趋势。对粮食生产与其影响因素进行灰色关联分析,分析表明粮食单产、有效灌溉面积对粮食产量的影响最大,农业现代化的影响需要进一步加大,粮食收购价格指数对粮食生产不会有更大的影响。提出增加科技投入提高单产、发展节水农业等挖掘耕地潜力增加粮食产量的途径。为新疆今后农业发展决策提供科学依据。

Gray Incidence Analysis Between Cultivation Area and Grain Yield in XinJiang and Its Affecting Factors

Relations among cultivated land,population and grain yield in Xinjiang during the past 53 years were discussed based on statistical and survey data.It was found that ①cultivation area fluctuated and the trend of cultivated land loss per capita started from 1961;②The actual population density is about 229 persons per square kilometres,and the number of population will increase to 2.1×107 in 2010;③Total grain yield and grain yield per capital have increased in a fluctuant way since 1949;④Grain yield per unit,effective irrigated area have more effects on total grain yield based on gray incidence analysis;⑤The effect of agro-modernization needs to be increased,grain buying index will not have more effect on total grain yield.Moreover,countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain production were discussed such as relying on scientific progress to increase yield grain per unit,developing wate-saving agriculture.This research provided a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Xinjiang.