Quantitative analysis of host resistance,fungicide and weather effects on potato early and late blight using computer simulation models

Models which simulate the development of potato early blight, potato late blight and fungicide dynamics were used to analyze the effects of host resistance, fungicide and weather on individual and combined epidemics of these diseases. Fungicide and host resistance effects were based on (and accurately reflected) products and cultivars available to commercial potato growers in northeastern USA. Moderate resistance to early blight had a 2-3 fold greater effect than did moderate resistance to late blight in suppressing early and late blight, respectively. Analysis of simulation experiments indicated that replacement of an early blight susceptible cultivar with a cultivar moderately resistant to the disease would permit a reduction in the fungicide application frequency from once every week to once every two weeks without loss of disease suppression. Fungicide effect in suppressing late blight was 2-3 fold greater than in suppressing early blight. Variation in seasonal weather (typical of northeastern USA) influenced late blight development more strongly than it affected early blight development, and it affected epidemics of individual diseases more than combined epidemics.