入世三年对我国棉花生产影响的初步评价

自2001年11月我国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）以来，棉花消费年均增长90多万t，生产规模扩大，总产增加，价格与国际接轨，但涨落幅度大，棉花主产品产值和棉农收益两年增一年减，增减幅度大。原棉进口数量巨增，净进口260万t。大量进口对国产原棉产生较大的冲击。原棉、棉纱线和棉机织物3年进口总金额140．13亿美元。出口总金额184．47亿美元，出口多于进口，即顺差42．34亿美元。在棉花产业链条中，原棉逆差40．97亿美元，棉纱线逆差3．99亿美元，棉机织物顺差89．3亿美元。这些结果表明，在棉花产业链条中，棉机织物的受惠最大，棉纱线次之，原棉受惠最小，或受冲击最大，产业之间的利益非均衡性。

Preliminary Review of Effect on Cotton Production |in China Since Joined into WTO

Since China took part in WTO in November in 2001, the use of cotton increased more than 900 thousand ton per year by the average, the scale of production widened, the total yield enhanced, the price of cotton met the international level with a strong rise and fall, the main product value of cotton and the income of cotton peasanfs both increased for two years and decreased for one year with a big fluctuation range. The importation amount of raw cotton enormously increased with a net import of 2.6 million ton, which made a strong strike on the homemade raw cotton. In the past three years, the total sum of importation of raw cotton, cotton yam and cotton woven fabric were 14,013 million dollars, it was smaller than the total sum of exportation, which was 18,474 million dollars, that means there was a favorable trade balance of 4,234 million dollars. In the chain of cotton industry, there were 4,097 million dollars deficit of raw cotton, 399 million dollars deficit of cotton yarn, and 8,930 million dollars surplus of cotton woven fabric. All these revealed that cotton woven fabric was the most favored one in the chain of cotton industry, cotton yam was the second one, and raw cotton was the least one or the most one suffered from strike. There was nonequilibrium profit in these sub-industries.