四川省粮食安全状况研究

为了掌握四川省粮食数量安全状况，为政府决策粮食数量安全提供科学依据。利用1978—2012年的统计数据，结合最小人均耕地面积(S_min)和耕地压力指数(K)，分析了四川省和21个市（州）耕地面积和粮食数量安全变化态势。结果表明：1978—2012年，四川省S_min呈下降趋势，但依赖于粮食单产增加，复种指数提高，以及耕地供给小幅增加，使得K并未呈现出明显上升趋势，粮食数量处于可控的安全态势，实现了“总量平衡，基本自给”的政策要求。在21个市（州）中，成都市、攀枝花、乐山市、雅安市、阿坝州、甘孜州的粮食数量安全存在较大压力，需通过动用库存或外调粮食以平衡市场供需。随着时间的推移，在城镇化深入发展和工业化转型升级的压力下，成都市、攀枝花市的粮食数量安全将越加突出。在严格保护耕地数量的基础上，提高资源的利用率；加大基础设施建设；加快突破性新品种、新技术推广应用；科学防灾减灾；针对市域差异，实施有差异化政策。

Study on Food Security in Sichuan Province

The aims were to study food quantity security of Sichuan Province, and provide scientific basis for government decision-making on food quantity security. The statistical number from 1978 to 2012 was used, and combined with minimum cropland acreage per capita (S_min) and cropland pressure index (K), to analyze the situation and development trend of cultivated land and food security in Sichuan Province, by using the GM(1,1) model to predict the food security trend of the next 6 years. The result showed that, from 1978 to 2012, S_min in Sichuan presented downtrend, food security was more reliable on the rise of per unit area yield of grain, multiple-cropping index and the slightly increase of land supply, so K didn’t show significant upward trend, and the food security was still under control, which helped to realize the policy requirement of “overall balance, basic self-sufficiency”. In the 21 cities and prefectures of Sichuan Province, there was great pressure on food security in Chengdu City, Panzhihua City, Leshan City, Ya’an City, Aba State, Ganzi State, and need to use the inventory or reallocation of food from other cities to ensure their market equilibrium. With the time passing-by, and under the pressure of in-depth development of urbanization and transformation and upgrade of industrialization, the food security issue will be more acute in Chengdu City and Panzhihua City. The study puts forward suggestions like improving the resource utilization rate on the base of strictly protecting the quantity of cultivated land, strengthening the construction of infrastructure, speeding up the breakthrough of new varieties and the popularization and application of new technology, preventing and reducing the disaster scientifically, and implementing different policy according to regional disparity.