| 平和县蜜柚产量的灰色分析与动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢先全,蔡月明.平和县蜜柚产量的灰色分析与动态预测[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2008,37(3):257-260. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢先全 蔡月明 |
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| 作者单位： | 集美大学理学院,福建,厦门,361021 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1991-2004年平和县蜜柚的统计资料以及《福建统计年鉴》的统计数据,运用灰色预测理论,建立动态GM(1,1)模型,对平和县未来5 a的蜜柚总产量进行动态预测.在此基础上,利用灰色关联分析方法对平和县蜜柚生产的影响因素进行定量分析,评估蜜柚生产中诸因素的作用,以促进蜜柚生产的可持续增长.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 蜜柚产量 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5470(2008)03-0257-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年5月11日 |
Grey analysis and dynamic forecast of pomelo yield in Pinghe County |
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| XIE Xian-quan,CAI Yue-ming.Grey analysis and dynamic forecast of pomelo yield in Pinghe County[J].Journal of Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,2008,37(3):257-260. |
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| Authors: | XIE Xian-quan CAI Yue-ming |
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| Abstract: | According to the statistical data about the pomelo in Pinghe County during 1991-2004 and the data of Fujian Statistical Annual during 1992-2005,by using the grey system theory and setting up the GM(1,1) model,the varying trend of the total pomelo yield in the next 5 years was predicted.The factors affecting pomelo yield were quantificationally analyzed,and the effects of these factors on pomelo production were also evaluated,so as to promote the sustainable development of pomelo production. |
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| Keywords: | grey system GM(1 1) model pomelo yield |
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