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大连黑松枝枯病预报方法的研究
引用本文:孔斌,刘岩,孙美清,赵伟. 大连黑松枝枯病预报方法的研究[J]. 辽宁林业科技, 2002, 0(5): 17-19,36
作者姓名:孔斌  刘岩  孙美清  赵伟
作者单位:1. 大连市气象台,辽宁,大连,116001
2. 大连市林业科学研究所,辽宁,大连,116033
摘    要:根据黑松枝枯病与气象条件的相关分析,结果发现,干旱、洪涝和低温等气候灾害会使病情加重。选择相关气象因子,运用统计预报方法,建立(0,1)回归方程。预报方程准确度为84%。用此预报方法对2000、2001和2002年进行了试报,效果较好。

关 键 词:黑松 枝枯病 预报方法 气象因子 回归方程
文章编号:1001-1714(2002)05-0017-03

Forecast method of Cenangium ferrugiosum of Pinus thunbergii in Dalian
KONG Bin ,LIU Yan ,SUN Mei-qing ,ZHAO Wei. Forecast method of Cenangium ferrugiosum of Pinus thunbergii in Dalian[J]. Liaoning Forestry Science and Technology, 2002, 0(5): 17-19,36
Authors:KONG Bin   LIU Yan   SUN Mei-qing   ZHAO Wei
Affiliation:KONG Bin 1,LIU Yan 1,SUN Mei-qing 2,ZHAO Wei 2
Abstract:The correlation analysis of Cenangium ferrugiosum of Pinus thunbergii in Dalian and meteorological conditions was studied. The results showed that drought, water logging, low temperature and other climatic calamities could cause tree's weakness and aggravate the diseases. A (0,1) regression equation was obtained by using statistical forecasting methods and selecting concerned meteorological factors. This methods was adopted tentatively in 2000,2001,and 2002, the effects were fine.
Keywords:Cenangium ferrugiosum of Pinus thunbergii   abnormal climate   forecast method
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