Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management |
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| Institution: | 1. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Lehotsky Hall, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;2. USDA Forest Service, New Ellenton, SC 29809, USA;3. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR 97204, USA;1. Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA;2. Biological System Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA;1. Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München, Germany;2. Arnold Sommerfeld Center for Theoretical Physics, LMU, Theresienstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany;3. Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Galileo Galilei”, Università di Padova, Via Marzolo 8, 35131 Padova, Italy;4. INFN, Sezione di Padova, Via Marzolo 8, 35131 Padova, Italy |
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| Abstract: | Large-scale scenario models have been developed to combine forest inventory data and forest growth models to explore impacts of changes in environmental conditions and consequences of changes in forest management, and to support decision-making and policy development. This article reviews some of the scenario studies done by EFI researchers in the past, and attempts to identify current limitations as well as future challenges in this field of research. Main emphasis so far has been on science-driven, technical scenario studies focussing on timber supply and carbon budget studies. While the need remains to improve the science-driven part of large-scale scenario analysis, there is an urgent need to extend the analysis to include value-driven aspects of forest management strategies, to arrive at consistent and comprehensive scenarios for possible future developments in European forestry that can be used in policy-making processes. |
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