生态赤字影响因素的定量分析及其动态预测研究--以江苏省为例

以江苏省为例,选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立社会经济系统指标体系,在对江苏省1985-2009年生态赤字时间序列计算分析的基础上,综合运用STIRPAT模型、变量投影重要性指数(VIP)和偏最小二乘(PLS)方法构建了江苏省生态赤字动态预测模型,对江苏省"十二五"规划期间生态赤字的发展情况进行了动态预测。结果表明,"十二五"规划期间,江苏省总生态赤字将从2009年的1.156 1×108 hm2上升至2015年的1.418 4×108 hm2,呈整体上升趋势,人均生态赤字从2009年的1.496 7hm2上升至2015年的1.768 8hm2,高于全球平均水平(0.400 0hm2),且江苏省不存在生态赤字EKC曲线的有关假说;根据VIP值得出"十二五"规划期间江苏省生态赤字持续增加的重要驱动因素,且按其影响的重要性排序依次为:二三产业产值占总产值比重>农作物总播种面积>人均GDP>普通高等学校师生比>卫生机构床位数>货运周转量>总人口数。最后就如何实现江苏省"十二五"规划目标提出相关政策建议。

Influencing Factors of Ecological Deficit and Its Dynamic Prediction--A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,an index system of social-economic system was established based on the analysis on the time series of ecological deficit(ED) from 1985 to 2009.An ED dynamic prediction model was then developed using the conjunction of STIRAPT model,VIP value and the partial least square regression(PLS) method.The results demonstrated that the ED of Jiangsu in the plan period of "the 12th five-year plan" could increase from 1.156 1×108 hm² in 2009 to 1.418 4×108 hm² in 2015.ED per capita could also increase from 1.496 7 hm² to 1.768 8 hm² in the same time period,significantly higher than the global level(0.400 0 hm²).The classical environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) hypothesis could not explain well in the ED of Jiangsu Province.The VIP values showed that the many factors exerted strong influences,in an descending order of significance on ED as: ratios of primary and secondary industry in GDPtotal cultivated areaGDP per capitastudent to teacher ratio in higher educationbed number in health care unitsvolume of goods transportationtotal population.Based on these analyses,recommendations including transforming economic growth pattern,increasing total cultivated area,controlling the volume of goods transportation,and restraining rapid population growth,were proposed to slow down the increment of ED and to achieve the long-term development goals in Jiangsu Province.