| 苹果中乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险的非参数概率评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶孟亮,聂继云,徐国锋,闫震,郑丽静.苹果中乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险的非参数概率评估[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):286-297. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶孟亮 聂继云 徐国锋 闫震 郑丽静 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院果树研究所,农业部果品质量安全风险评估实验室(兴城),农业部果品及苗木质量监督检验测试中心(兴城),兴城125100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家农产品质量安全风险评估计划(GJFP2014002,GJFP2015002)；中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(0032014013)；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2015-RIP) |
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| 摘 要： | 为明确国产苹果中乙撑硫脲残留水平及量化中国居民乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险。基于渤海湾(辽宁、山东、河北)和西北黄土高原(陕西、山西、河南)两大苹果优势主产区采集的282份苹果样品,运用专业风险评估软件@Risk,尝试构建非参数概率评估模型,对中国居民乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险进行概率评估。结果表明:参试的282份苹果样品,乙撑硫脲检出率为80.9%,残留量均值为6.1μg/kg,最高残留量为74.1μg/kg,绝大多数苹果样品(占90.4%)乙撑硫脲残留量10.0μg/kg。282份苹果样品中乙撑硫脲残留量的离散程度较大(变异系数达134.6%),不同省份变异系数排序,陕西(150.7%)辽宁(146.8%)河北(91.2%)山东(88.1%)河南(54.9%)山西(51.8%)。不同年龄组人群膳食摄入风险存在明显差异,幼儿(2~6岁)和儿童(7~13岁)乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险均明显高于青少年(14~17岁)和成年(18~59岁),为重点监控对象。总体而言,不同年龄组人群乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险均很低,其中慢性膳食摄入风险介于0.35%~13.12%,急性膳食摄入风险介于0.22%~3.94%,均远低于100%;不同省份和不同主产区苹果乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险虽存在明显差异,但均远低于100%,不同省份和不同主产区苹果乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险也是可以接受的。基于最大残留限量估计值(estimate maximum residue limit,e MRL),建议中国苹果中乙撑硫脲最大残留限量值设为0.2 mg/kg。本研究可为苹果质量安全监管和今后系统开展果品质量安全风险评估提供有益借鉴和参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 模型 风险评估 农药 苹果 乙撑硫脲 膳食摄入 非参数概率评估模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/7/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/11/13 0:00:00 |
Nonparametric probabilistic evaluation of ethylenethiourea dietary intake risk in apple |
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| Ye Mengliang,Nie Jiyun,Xu Guofeng,Yan Zhen and Zheng Lijing.Nonparametric probabilistic evaluation of ethylenethiourea dietary intake risk in apple[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(1):286-297. |
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| Authors: | Ye Mengliang Nie Jiyun Xu Guofeng Yan Zhen and Zheng Lijing |
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| Institution: | Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Laboratory of Risk Assessment on Fruit Quality and SafetyXingcheng, Ministry of Agriculture; Quality Inspection and Test Center for Fruit and Nursery Stocks, Ministry of Agriculture Xingcheng, 125100, China,Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Laboratory of Risk Assessment on Fruit Quality and SafetyXingcheng, Ministry of Agriculture; Quality Inspection and Test Center for Fruit and Nursery Stocks, Ministry of Agriculture Xingcheng, 125100, China,Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Laboratory of Risk Assessment on Fruit Quality and SafetyXingcheng, Ministry of Agriculture; Quality Inspection and Test Center for Fruit and Nursery Stocks, Ministry of Agriculture Xingcheng, 125100, China,Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Laboratory of Risk Assessment on Fruit Quality and SafetyXingcheng, Ministry of Agriculture; Quality Inspection and Test Center for Fruit and Nursery Stocks, Ministry of Agriculture Xingcheng, 125100, China and Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Laboratory of Risk Assessment on Fruit Quality and SafetyXingcheng, Ministry of Agriculture; Quality Inspection and Test Center for Fruit and Nursery Stocks, Ministry of Agriculture Xingcheng, 125100, China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | models risk assessment pesticides apple ethylenethiourea dietary intake nonparametric probabilistic evaluation model |
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