黄土高原庆阳地区春玉米生育期对气候变化的响应

旨在研究黄土高原庆阳地区春玉米的生育期气候变化特征及物候变化规律,给粮食生产安全及情报服务提供理论依据。通过以黄土高原庆阳地区有代表性的物候观测站的春玉米生育期内的气温、降水、≥10℃的活动积温作为研究对象,来分析气候变化背景下春玉米生育期的气候资源及物候变化特征。结果表明:春玉米全生育期内平均气温呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.6℃/10a;平均降水量呈减少趋势,减少速率为8.7 mm/10a,但绝大多年份雨水能满足玉米生长发育需要;积温呈增加态势,变化速率为58.0℃/10a,热量资源充足;稳定通过10℃的日期为偏早出现趋势,变化速率为6.3 d/10a。春玉米全生育期日数呈现为缩短的响应特征,减少量为1.7 d/10a。因此,气候变化对春玉米种植较为有利,尤其热量资源增加,有利于拓展种植界限及提高产量。要充分利用气候资源,因地制宜,选择适合的品种及播期进行生产,同时要加强田间管理,充分挖掘气候增产潜力,提高玉米种植的经济效益,为精准脱贫提供决策依据。

Response of Spring Maize Growth Period to Climate Change in Qingyang Area of Loess Plateau

The aims are to study the climate change characteristics and phenological changes of spring maize during the growth period in Qingyang of the Loess Plateau, and provide a basis for food production safety and information service. The temperature, precipitation and active accumulated temperature (≥10℃) of spring maize growing period at representative observation stations in Qingyang area were used as objects. The climate resources and phenological characteristics of spring maize under climate change were analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature showed an upward trend during the whole growth period of spring maize, and the upward rate was 0.6℃/10a. The average precipitation showed a decreasing trend with a decreasing rate of 8.7 mm/10a, but the rainwater in most years could meet the needs of maize growth. Accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend with a change rate of 58.0℃/10a and heat resource was sufficient. The trend of stable passage through 10℃ was earlier and the change rate was 6.3 d/10a. The number of days of the whole growth period of spring maize showed a reducing response, with a decrease of 1.7d/10a. Therefore, climate change is more favorable for planting spring maize, especially the increase of heat resource, which is conducive to expanding planting boundaries and increasing yield. We should make full use of climate resource and adapt to local conditions, and choose suitable varieties and sowing date. At the same time, we should strengthen field management and make full use of climate production potential, to improve the economic benefits of maize planting and provide decision-making basis for targeted poverty alleviation.