基于MaxEnt模型和气候变化情景入侵种黄顶菊在中国的分布区预测

为了分析入侵种黄顶菊[Flaveria bidentis (L.) Kuntze.]在中国的潜在适生分布区,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)与ArcGIS软件预测了黄顶菊在当前及未来气候条件下在中国的潜在适生分布区。结果表明：在当前气候条件下,黄顶菊主要分布在河北省大部分地区、北京市南部、河南省北部以及天津市的西部地区;未来气候条件下,黄顶菊的适生分布范围将进一步扩大,在2060年前后,高适生区的面积将增长到14.73万km ²,增长率达121.49%,主要分布在河北省及周边地区、陕西省西安市及周边城市。运用刀切法(Jackknife)计算各个环境变量对物种分布的影响,最冷月最低温度、最冷季平均温度、年平均气温、最干季平均温度、海拔、温度季节性变化标准差、最湿季度平均温度和最暖季平均温度8个环境变量是影响黄顶菊分布的主要因素。模型的AUC值为0.987,表明模型的准确度非常高。未来气候变化情景下黄顶菊的分布范围将进一步扩大,建议相关部门对此密切关注,并尽早采取防护措施。

Distribution Prediction of Invasive Species Flaveria bidentis in China: Based on MaxEnt Model and Climate Change Scenario

The paper aims to analyze the potential suitable distribution area of the invasive species Flaveria bidentis in China. Based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software, we predicted the potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China in current and future climate conditions. The results showed that: in the current climate conditions, Flaveria bidentis was mainly distributed in most parts of Hebei, southern Beijing, northern Henan and western Tianjin; in the future climate conditions, the suitable distribution range of Flaveria bidentis would be further expanded; around 2060, the area of the high-adapted area of Flaveria bidentis would increase to 147300 km ² with a growth rate of 121.49%, mainly distributed in Hebei and surrounding areas, Xi’an in Shaanxi and surrounding cities. The Jackknife method was used to calculate the influence of each environmental variable on the species distribution, the main factors affected the distribution of Flaveria bidentis were the minimum temperature of coldest month, the mean temperature of coldest season, annual mean temperature, the mean temperature of driest season, standard deviation of seasonal altitude and temperature changes, the mean temperature of wettest season and the mean temperature of warmest season. The AUC of the model was 0.987, indicating the accuracy of the model was very high. The distribution of Flaveria bidentis in the future climate change scenario will be further expanded, the relevant departments should pay close attention and take protective measures as soon as possible.