杂交中稻组合在长江上游不同地域种植全生育期的预测方法研究

利用2004～2005年长江上游国家区试部分组别的杂交中稻组合在不同地域种植的全生育期与经度、纬度和海拔资料,对杂交中稻组合在长江上游不同地域种植全生育期的预测方法进行了研究。结果表明,杂交中稻全生育期与种植所在地的经度、纬度及海拔呈极显著线性关系,并建立了全生育期变异值(△Y)与经度(X1)、纬度(X2)、海拔(X3)变异值关系的回归模型:△Y=-2.59+1.324X1+1.288X2+0.025X3,R2=0.8398,F=202.76,P=0.0000。经模型检测,390个杂交组合点次的预测误差变幅为0～7d,其中累积偏差5d以下的保证率高达96.41%,相对误差0.22%～2.22%,RMSE值0.19%～0.48%。应用该模型,只要已知某一杂交中稻品种在已知经度、纬度、海拔的某地种植的全生育期,就可较准确地预测该组合在已知经度、纬度、海拔的其他地区种植的全生育期。

A Predicting Method of the Period from Sowing to Harvest of Mid-season Hybrid Rice in Different Districts of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

Based on the data of the total growing days from sowing to harvest of mid-season hybrid rice,longitude,latitude and altitude in different districts of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River of National Hybrid Rice District Trials in 2004～2005,a predicting method of the total growing days in different districts of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was developed.The results indicated that there was highly significant correlation between the total growing days and longitude,latitude and altitude.The predicting model of the difference values of the total growing days(△Y)based on the difference values of longitude(X_1),latitude(X_2)and altitude(X_3)in different district planting were established as:△Y=-2.59+1.324X_1+1.288X_2+0.025X_3,R_2=83.98,F=202.76,P=0.0000.The test results for model indicated that the absolute value of differences between observed and simulated was 0-7days from 390 experiment observed values for 57 hybrids,the accuracy percentage prediction for≤5 days of absolute value of differences between observed and simulated Was 96.41%.comparatively analogue error was 0.22%～2.22%.RMSE value 0.19%～0.48%.