大豆灰斑病流行趋势预测及产量损失研究

采用因子分析和逐步回归的方法对佳木斯地区１９８１－１９９４年间大豆灰斑病发生程度和相应年份的相关气象资料进行整理分析，筛选出５个非特殊灾变年份大豆灰斑病流行趋势预测初始数学模型。

STUDY ON FORECAST FOR EPIDEMICAL TENDENCY AND YIELD LOSS OF SOYBEAN FROGEYE LEAF SPOT

Through analysing the relationship between epidemical tendency of soybean frogeye leaf spot and the relative meteorological information from 1981-1994 in Jiamusi region, Heilongjiang province, by using factorial analysis and stepwise regression, the primary mathematic models of forecast for epidemical tendency of soybean frogeye leaf spot for nonparticular calamity year were established. Their historical fitness are 92.9%-100% respectively. By analysing the data of yield loss and disease, the result showed that there were positive linear correlations, between yield loss of soybean with disease severity of leaf, pot, and grains in cultivars both resistant and susceptible.